A Hypocrite Racing to be MAGAMan

How a once-critical voice became the Vice President of MAGA—and why his transformation matters for 2028.

In the last two weeks, Vice President J.D. Vance has slammed the Israeli Knesset, mocked a New York mayoral candidate, defended bigoted young Republicans, and lied about the cause of the ongoing government shutdown. In other words, he’s fully adopted Donald Trump’s fight-with-everyone-at-once style. It marks the end of a cynical transformation for a man who began as a moderate conservative and now strives to be both a hero of Trump’s movement and a darling of the Christian Right.

Vance became a public figure with his 2016 book Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and a Culture in Crisis. The bestseller—later turned into a mediocre movie—made him a go-to source for journalists eager to understand Appalachian politics, poverty, and opioid addiction. He used that spotlight to present himself as a voice of reason.

In July 2016, he published an article in The Atlantic comparing Trump to “cultural heroin”—a temporary high for poor white voters that would not solve their problems. In August, he told NPR, “I can’t stomach Trump… I think he’s noxious and is leading the white working class to a very dark place.” In October, on PBS NewsHour, he declared himself a “Never Trump guy,” adding, “I never liked him.” That same month, he wrote on social media: “Trump makes people I care about afraid. Immigrants, Muslims, etc. Because of this, I find him reprehensible. God wants better of us.”

Back in 2016, those were mainstream views—Trump won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote by more than a million votes. Through Trump’s first term, Vance wavered slightly, saying he appreciated Trump’s disdain for “the elites,” but still concluded Trump had “thoroughly failed to deliver” and predicted he would lose to Joe Biden.

At the same time he was denouncing Trump, Vance entered the world of venture capital, working with billionaire investor Peter Thiel. Thiel is a radical political skeptic who endorsed Trump in 2016, believes democracy is incompatible with real freedom, and thinks societies should be led by exceptional individuals rather than elected leaders. He has even mused aloud about the literal presence of the Antichrist on Earth.

Under Thiel’s influence, Vance drifted from the empathetic faith that once prompted him to defend “immigrants, Muslims, etc.” and embraced a darker worldview. Suffering, he began to argue, is not a policy problem but “the cost of living in a fallen world.” He said America’s problem is “spiritual rot,” and the country must choose between “Christian civilization” or a “secular empire of death.” Secular law, he implied, should give way to Christian morality.

Whether Thiel caused Vance’s transformation or simply encouraged it, he clearly saw Vance as a protégé. In March 2021, Thiel arranged for Vance to visit Trump at Mar-a-Lago and seek his blessing. That same month, Thiel donated $10 million to a PAC created solely to support Vance (and later added another $5 million). He also introduced Vance to tech investor David O. Sacks, who contributed $1 million.

Vance announced his Senate candidacy on July 1, 2021, and immediately began courting Trump’s base. On Fox News, he told MAGA viewers, “I ask folks not to judge me based on what I said in 2016… I regret being wrong about the guy.” He then launched into a brutal three-way primary. In the end, Trump endorsed him, saying:
“It is time for the entire MAGA movement… to unite behind J.D.’s campaign… J.D. Vance has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”

The endorsement doubled Vance’s polling numbers from 11 to 23 percent. Why would Trump back someone who spent years scorning him? CNN’s David Chalian argued it came down to one word: celebrity. But clearly, it was also Vance’s public groveling. Trump himself said, “J.D. Vance may have said some not so great things about me in the past, but he gets it now.”

In a state that supported Trump twice, Vance’s primary win all but ensured victory over Democrat Tim Ryan. Trump held rallies for him, raised millions, and Vance eventually embraced Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen—the same election he once predicted Trump would lose. After winning, Vance said, “I can’t thank President Trump enough… his endorsement made all the difference.”

In exchange for Trump’s support, Vance shed the identity of the man who once defended immigrants and Muslims and became a sycophant—much like Mike Pence before him. But unlike Pence, Vance wasn’t going to be submissive. Instead of Trump’s lapdog, he set out to become his attack dog.

His rise accelerated after a sniper killed right-wing provocateur Charlie Kirk on September 10. Vance encouraged people to expose and ruin anyone who celebrated Kirk’s death: “Call them out. And hell, call their employers.” He then flew on Air Force Two to retrieve Kirk’s body from Utah and bring it to Arizona, speaking at his memorial and portraying Kirk as a Christian martyr. “Believers gain eternal life, while unbelievers eternal damnation… born twice, die once. Born once, die twice,” he proclaimed.

More recently, Vance traveled to Israel to support a Trump-backed peace deal after the 2023 Hamas massacre. When the Knesset passed a symbolic bill calling for annexation of the West Bank—an idea opposed by the U.S.—Vance called it a “very stupid political stunt” and said he was “personally insulted.”

At the same time, he defended young Republicans who’d been exposed for racist, anti-Semitic, and violent comments in a private group chat. They were just “kids” making “stupid jokes,” he said—echoing Trump’s “very fine people” defense of neo-Nazis in Charlottesville. These “kids” were 25 to 34 years old, and politicians from both parties condemned them. But Vance saw an opportunity to flex Trump-style.

He then attacked New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani after Mamdani shared how his Muslim aunt had feared Islamophobia after 9/11. Vance mocked him: “According to Zohran, the real victim of 9/11 was his auntie who got some (allegedly) bad looks.” It was a distortion—but one crafted to score points against both socialism and Islam.

Vance also lied—another Trump tactic—about the government shutdown. He claimed Democrats wanted to spend “hundreds of billions of dollars on health care benefits to illegal aliens.” In reality, undocumented immigrants don’t qualify for those benefits. Democrats were trying to maintain subsidies for citizens using the ACA. Without them, premiums could jump 30 percent—harming the working-class voters Vance once claimed to champion.

Learning from Pence’s mistakes, Vance is snarling, not kneeling, as he positions himself to succeed Trump in 2028. Early polling suggests it’s working—but the race is wide open. In a recent YouGov poll testing ten potential successors, he topped the list, but right behind him was someone he should worry about: Donald Trump Jr. The actual heir.