Democrats Dream of a Sweep

With Harris up and Trump down, a trifecta is possible

You flip on the TV, press the right buttons, and there it is—CNN's broadcast of a national political party’s convention. It doesn’t matter which party is holding its big gathering; you’re bound to see some peculiar sights. You might spot a woman wearing a big floppy hat covered with stickers and buttons, or a fellow with stars and stripes painted on his face. And, of course, there’ll be an Uncle Sam or two—or maybe even five.

The outfits may be silly, but the people wearing them are not. After the partying ends, these convention delegates will return home and throw themselves into their campaigns. The Democrats, whose convention takes place this week in Chicago, will be particularly energized. In fact, they’ll be dreaming of capturing the House and Senate, along with the White House.

The main attractions, of course, will be presidential candidate (and current vice president) Kamala Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. After stepping into the spotlight following President Biden's decision not to seek reelection, Harris and Walz have electrified crowds across the country and surged in polls conducted in battleground states. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s campaign appears to be in freefall as he becomes more incoherent with each passing day.

Trump and Harris will dominate the headlines as three former presidents—Clinton, Obama, and Biden—offer praise for their side and attacks on the opposition. But on the convention floor, and in rooms closed to the press, delegates and state-level leaders will be gearing up for an all-out, ten-week scramble to defend the party’s slim Senate majority and recapture the House they lost in 2022.

Unimaginable just two months ago, the possibility of a Democratic trifecta is being fueled by a surge in contributions from both small and large donors who are either excited by the national ticket or terrified of being left behind if the Democrats sweep. These donations, the lifeblood of politics, pay for the media you’ll see between now and November, as well as the less visible aspects of campaigning—offices, registration drives, organizers, and even cab rides for voters who need help getting to the polls.

The Harris/Walz excitement has already lifted the spirits of party leaders who had been alarmed by the base’s negative response to Biden. The president had long struggled to maintain the support of Black men, Muslims, and Hispanics, who form a significant part of his party’s base. Then came his disastrous debate performance, which only heightened concerns about his age and led to calls for him to step aside.

As you’ll recall, Biden was nudged toward his decision by Democrats in the House and Senate, who one by one expressed their waning confidence in him. Less noted was their deep concern about House and Senate candidates running on the same ballot. With the base disillusioned with Biden, millions were expected to stay home on Election Day. And when voters stay home, down-ballot candidates suffer.

In the months leading up to Biden’s withdrawal, Democrats were especially worried about losing their two-seat majority in the Senate, as they must defend 23 seats while only 11 Republican seats are up for reelection. Since Biden stepped down, they have begun to see opportunities to flip seats in states that were previously out of reach. Now, it seems the Senate may end up with 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans. If Harris wins, Walz will become the tie-breaking vote, keeping the Senate blue. In the House, the Democrats have a clearer path and are likely to regain control.

For Democrats at the convention, Harris’s rise and Trump’s decline will be great sources of inspiration. Leaders addressing state delegations in larger meetings or speaking to conventioneers one by one will now find it easier to fire them up. Keep this in mind as you watch the political entertainment on the convention’s big stage. While the superstars matter for generating national enthusiasm, if the Democrats sweep in November, it will be the people in the funny costumes who made it happen.