Farmers, Ranchers, and Rural Voters Are Turning on Trump — Here’s Why
Trump’s policies are hurting rural families — and the political backlash is beginning
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Donald Trump’s overall approval rating in the Gallup Poll has fallen to a second-term low. Only 36 percent of Americans say he’s doing a good job, while 60 percent disapprove of his handling of the presidency. Most troubling for him, he’s losing ground among Republicans. Since August, his GOP approval rating has dropped seven points — from 91 percent to 84. Who’s turning away? I suspect it’s largely rural Republicans, his most loyal supporters, who are now taking the economic hits. It doesn’t take many to have a big impact. And I suspect, only suspect, that many are hanging on for dear life because, well, he’s (laughably) a member of their tribe.
Heartland Americans don’t usually follow the blow-by-blow of Washington policy battles, but they feel the consequences. Trump’s push to slash Medicaid threatens the revenue streams rural hospitals depend on to keep their doors open. His tariff war has decimated demand and prices for export crops like soybeans. And his crusade to deport undocumented immigrants is squeezing the already-fragile farm labor market.
Forty-two percent of American farm workers — the people who pick vegetables, care for livestock, and milk our cows — lack legal status. After ICE raids on farms last spring, thousands of workers simply disappeared. In some regions, as much as 70 percent of the workforce stopped showing up. Vegetables rotted in fields, and farmers struggled even to plant fall crops.
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In July, Central California farmer Greg Tesch, whose region overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2024, told Reuters: “Nobody feels safe when they hear the word ICE, even the documented people. If things are ripe, such as our neighbors have bell peppers here, if they don’t harvest within two or three days, the crop is sunburned or over-mature. We need the labor.”
Meanwhile, thousands of soybean farmers have watched both prices and demand collapse since Trump’s trade war with China began. When the president imposed tariffs of 100 percent or more on Chinese goods, China responded by eliminating U.S. soybean imports altogether. For years, American farmers shipped up to 30 million tons of soybeans annually to China. Now much of that crop sits in storage, held by farmers praying for a return to normal. Prices have fallen 40 to 50 percent compared to a decade ago, operating costs are rising, and bankruptcies have doubled since 2024.
As U.S. farmers suffer, growers in Brazil, Argentina, and elsewhere are filling the gap, flush with Chinese orders. Trump rubbed salt in the wound when he approved a $20 billion bailout for Argentina’s hard-right president, Javier Milei — a political ally who openly mimics Trump’s style. That connection likely explains why Trump briefly mused about increasing imports of Argentine beef. It hasn’t happened yet, but the mere suggestion sparked fury. “It feels like a slap in the face to rural America,” one Oklahoma rancher told NPR. “It makes you feel invisible and overlooked.”
With rising costs and shrinking herds, many ranchers have turned to an alternative revenue stream: leasing land for wind energy projects. Crop farmers are doing the same, which is why wind turbines now dot fields and pastures across the country. But Trump — firmly in the pocket of the oil industry — remains hostile to alternative energy.
The irony is that wind programs have been enormously successful in some regions. Iowa now gets 63 percent of its electricity from wind farms. Texas and Oklahoma — oil states and Trump strongholds — have booming wind industries, creating jobs for rural workers and steady lease payments for landowners. Yet Trump’s Treasury Department has frozen billions in rural energy project subsidies, leaving farm families who counted on this income stuck in limbo.
In many of these same communities, small hospitals serve as economic anchors — but they’re now in danger. The Medicaid cuts Trump proposed, and Congress approved, will strip coverage from millions of rural Americans. New restrictions on state payments to hospitals and physicians will further slash reimbursement rates. According to the Journal of the American Medical Association, the policy will push more than 335 rural hospitals to the brink of closure.
Then there are Trump’s education cuts. Underfunded rural schools will lose federal dollars that pay for teachers, aides, and essential programs like speech therapy, reading assistance, and special education. School districts face an impossible choice: cut quality or raise local property taxes.
With spending cuts and tariffs punishing rural communities, voters in deep-red, sparsely populated regions are seeing that their loyalty isn’t being rewarded. In yesterday’s special election in a heavily rural Tennessee district, the Trump-aligned GOP candidate still won — but by far less than expected. Where Trump won by 22 points last year, Matt Van Epps won by far less.
Why the shift? Because small-town America is waking up. The hard core are less enthused, those opposed are more enthused, and independents are shifting. Trump promised prosperity to the “forgotten” Americans who put him in power. They gave him their trust. And he turned his back on them. Likely, he doesn’t care much, because he’s making his billions.
This doesn’t mean that Democrats are now the favored party there. They have much work to do to convince rural America… but their job is just a little bit easier now.
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