Fields of Frustration

As tariffs uncertainty bites, rural America starts rethinking its loyalty to Trump.

It’s planting time in my former home state of Illinois, where a middle-aged soybean farmer named John Bartman recently told a Chicago TV station he cannot remember ever feeling so pessimistic. “It’s really sad dealing with these tariffs and the uncertainty they are bringing us,” he said.

While the news today implied that maybe the tariffs are going to go away—because who even knows what's happening anymore—there’s still an intense amount of uncertainty in the market. And the regrets are real.

Sadness is one feeling rising in rural America. So are frustration and anger. The reason? In retaliation for President Trump’s three-digit tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., China has added a 145 percent tariff to the price of American goods. We’ve been here before, and if history is any guide, things will not go well for our farmers.

When Trump took office in 2017, China was importing more than $30 billion worth of soybeans per year from Illinois and other states—roughly 75 percent of our total production. Then Trump and China traded tariffs. Soybean farmers were hit hard. In 2018, the value of shipments dropped to less than $10 billion. Farm bankruptcies rose 24 percent. Sales rebounded temporarily after the trade spat ended, but they settled at levels well below 2017. Who filled the gap? Mostly Brazil.

This time around, China’s reciprocal tariffs apply to all agricultural products. Rural communities are anticipating sharply lower sales of soybeans, wheat, corn, sorghum, cotton, chicken, and beef. Farmers are already putting off equipment purchases and laying off workers.

But wait, it gets worse.

As Trump closes the door to foreign markets, he’s also slashing federal spending on food programs for schools, food banks, and foreign aid. These cuts eliminate once-reliable sales that helped farmers stay afloat.

American farmers are also suffering as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) team hacks away at farm programs funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA experts who advise farmers on financing and increasing yields have been fired. Grants for new facilities have been suspended. In Montana, for example, the loss of funding for a new feed mill will make business tougher for 150 grain farmers in the Bozeman area.

The bitter irony for farm counties is that 95 percent of them—more than 400 in all—went for Trump in 2024. The average margin was 78 to 22 percent. These remarkable totals powered his victories in several swing states. Voters in these rural areas considered what they did for their candidate and believed he would do right by them.

Now, as they face the brunt of his nonsensical tariff policy, they must be feeling buyer’s remorse.

Jim Hartman, a honey farmer in North Carolina, is one of the few farm-country Trump diehards who has spoken publicly about his regret. Having voted for Trump three times, he recently told CNN, “I never thought I was going to lose this much money this fast.” Hartman, who expects to lose 50 percent of his revenue this year, has stopped hiring and postponed a major equipment purchase. Looking back on the vote he cast last November, he said, “Perhaps I should have considered other options.”

If Hartman and other farmers want to make themselves heard, they will vote for Democrats in upcoming elections.

Who will suffer if this happens? Not Trump—he’s barred from running again. No, it will be the GOP that takes the hit. And given how much the party relies on rural voters, the blow could be devastating and long-lasting.

Farmers could be considering “other options” for a long time to come.