Haley Loses, Trump Fumes

No big surprises in New Hampshire, right?

The most recent Washington Post poll had Donald Trump ahead of Nikki Haley by 52 to 34. Then, on election day, things looked good for Haley. Minutes after midnight, Dixville Notch, the place famous for casting the first votes in the New Hampshire presidential primary, chose her over Donald Trump by 6 to 0 (I’m surprised Trump didn’t whine about that too).  With the unique count complete, the rest of the state awakened and began to go to the polls in places like Manchester and Nashua and Portsmouth.

As the GOP field had been winnowed to just two candidates, the  New Hampshire presidential primary became the kind of drama that Trump the showman loves. For days the press had reported that the Trump team was going for a knockout blow, hoping to push Haley aside so that their man could focus on his presumed general election opponent Joe Biden.

On the day before the election, Haley barned-stormed across the state. In the town of Franklin, she told a crowd,  “America does not do coronations. Let’s show all of the media class and the political class that we’ve got a different plan in mind, and let’s show the country what we can do.”  Meanwhile, in a packed hall on the banks of Lake Winnipesaukee, Trump told an overflow crowd that Haley was finished. Come election day, he said, she would be forced to face the inevitability of Trump’s nomination and drop out.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-new-hampshire-primary-trump_n_65af238fe4b0d65b024d98e5

Then came the day when New Hampshire voters cast their ballots. At midday Tuesday, in South Carolina, where Haley was governor, Democratic Congressman James Clyburn said she would do well in that state’s important upcoming primary if she notched a surprise win or lost to Trump by less than 10 percentage points. The X factor was, of course, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ decision to end his campaign, which he had announced on Sunday. Having run as a mini-Trump, DeSantis had thrown his support to the former president. Would his backers go to Haley or join the Trump fold? Would some of them see DeSantis’s name, which was still on the ballot, and cast their votes for him?

The answer was emphatic. Like the cartoon character Wile Coyote, Haley ran as fast as she could until all the votes were counted and she flew off a cliff, plummeting to the earth below. She picked up many of the votes from all those who dropped out, but it wasn’t enough. With 54.6 percent Trump exceeded poll projections but Haley, representing the any-body-but Trump wing of the party, did too. She pulled in 43.2.  But as this was, she failed to meet Clyburn’s benchmark, which could mean that even when she campaigns at home, Haley could get bested.

You wouldn’t know it from Trump’s “victory” speech. In typical classless childish Trump style, he attacked Haley, made himself the victim, and humiliated Sen. Tim Scott, who dutifully smiled and paid another installment of his required humiliation to be considered for Vice President.

Trump’s New Hampshire victory was due, in large part, to the enthusiasm of his followers. They see in him a bit of themselves, so voting for him is personal. He’s more than their favorite. he is their alter-ego, expressing their feelings and saying what they wished they could say and thereby pissing off the haughty Democrats and the smug establishment. Of course, leaders should appeal to better angels of followers, but in Trump world its just a hyperloop of anger that feeds on itself.

The message of this election is clear. The anti-establishment candidate who represents rage and destructive impulses won. The old-guard Republican lost. And the party of decency, policy, and will soon be gone. In fact, Trump and his ilk are now the establishment. At least we have clarity if nothing else.

The one bright spot? If most of the 43.2 percent who went for Haley decide they have to vote for anyone but Trump in November, President Biden’s chance for a second term will rise. A twice-defeated Trump would then leave a vacuum in the place that the old-fashioned GOP once occupied. Would this give the sane a chance at a comeback?  If Trumpists stay engaged, and find a suitable heir to Trump’s legacy, the answer would likely be no.    

This is why its worth fighting for the soul of the party, now and for the foreseeable future. Like the Bircher cancer that was pushed aside, we need to do the same with the Trump cult. It may take a while.