Iran Is Back On Its Heels

Now is the time to reshape the dynamic in the Middle East

Simply put, it’s been an awful year for Iran. Let’s review.

After its 2023 massacre of Israelis, Hamas—Tehran’s anti-Israel ally in Gaza—has been all but destroyed by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).

In Lebanon, after about a year of exchanging strikes with the IDF, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia has lost key leaders and been forced to abandon its effort to open a second battlefront in support of Hamas.

Iran itself has been humiliated twice by its failed rocket and drone attacks on Israel. While the Iranians blustered, the IDF, with America’s help, destroyed all but a handful of the Iranian drones and rockets.

Days ago, Iran’s key ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, was driven from power and fled to Russia as a coalition of revolutionary forces swiftly took control of the country. With Assad gone, Iran has lost the supply routes it long used to bolster Hezbollah’s war effort.

To sum up: in just over a year, the alliance opposing Israel’s very right to exist has been dismantled. This outcome is the opposite of what Hamas intended when it crossed Gaza’s border with Israel on October 7, 2023. As their operatives slaughtered 1,190 people and took about 250 hostages, Hamas’s leaders believed they could ignite a regional war. Instead, they have been pounded into oblivion.

In hindsight, it’s clear that Israel’s response to October 7 is reshaping the Middle East. The IDF engaged all four of Israel’s major enemies—Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran—seizing the crisis as an opportunity. While there is much understandable debate about the IDF’s tactics, the results speak for themselves.

For the mullahs who run Iran, the destruction of their so-called Axis of Resistance marks the end of a project that has been in motion for more than four decades. Over that time, they have spent countless billions on what has ultimately turned out to be a fantasy. With the backing of the United States and other allies, coupled with its own seasoned, high-tech military, Israel was never going to be destroyed. This truth is now impossible to ignore.

More secure than it has been in a long time, Israel is now in a position to address the persistent issue of the Palestinians seeking a homeland, and they should. As someone with credentials as a national security hawk, Netanyahu has the credibility to take significant steps toward resolving this problem, and can bring coalitions with him. Meanwhile, now that they can no longer rely on Hamas and Hezbollah, the Palestinians may feel more inclined to engage seriously in talks that guarantee Israel’s security in exchange for greater autonomy.

With the dust still settling, the future remains uncertain. Some of the rebels who toppled Assad are religious hardliners, and it’s unclear how they will influence the new Syria’s relationship with Israel. Meanwhile, Iran’s military remains formidable. It continues its drive to develop nuclear weapons and rocket systems to deliver them, and it remains a major regional power, with more than one million personnel in uniform and the capacity to produce drones that Russia has effectively used in its war against Ukraine.

However, there is no doubt that, as a regional power, Iran is weaker than it has been in recent memory. It has endured a series of severe defeats, finds its alliances in disarray, and has lost much of its prestige. Now is the time for Israel, America, and the world to shape a future that keeps the Iranian leadership isolated and ensures they face more very bad years ahead. Maybe we can finally resolve the Palestinian issue as a result.