Beware the October surprise

Harris must campaign like she is behind

Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash

Elections aren’t over until they’re over (just ask Hillary Clinton). With this in mind, Democrats are looking beyond the rally crowds and high-profile media appearances, reminding themselves that Kamala Harris could still lose. Harris herself has cautioned, “This is a margin-of-error race. We are the underdog, and I’m running like the underdog.”

The "margin of error" Harris refers to is the buffer pollsters include in their reports, acknowledging they could be off by up to four percentage points. This means that recent polls showing Harris leading Trump nationally by one to five points should be taken with caution. On Election Day, Trump could potentially edge out a victory.

Harris’s team is understandably nervous, recalling that despite Clinton winning the national vote by two million, she lost key swing states and, as a result, the Electoral College. And as everyone knows, it's the Electoral College that decides the presidency. Indeed, before Trump’s victory in 2016, Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000, but George W. Bush secured the White House.

The Harris team’s standing in swing states is concerning. According to The Wall Street Journal, the candidates are essentially tied in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona. Why? Trump is favored on the issues voters find most important—namely, the economy and immigration.

What could tip the balance in these swing states? Given that it’s October, we should brace for an "October surprise." In 1992, George H. W. Bush likely lost because his former defense secretary was indicted in October. In 2016, the FBI’s announcement of an investigation into Hillary Clinton likely cost her the election. Even in 2020, President Trump’s hospitalization with COVID-19 in October may have contributed to his loss.

As you can see, October surprises often come from outside the campaigns, which makes both candidates—and me—nervous. Imagine if something significant happens involving illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border. Harris is already vulnerable on immigration, and a crisis at the border could doom her chances for the Oval Office.

One of Harris’s challenges is that many voters don’t know what she stands for. As someone who follows closely, I know she supports expanding home healthcare under Medicare, continuing military aid to Ukraine and Israel, banning assault weapons, cutting middle-class taxes, raising corporate taxes, and providing cash assistance to first-time homebuyers. These are popular policies, but her message doesn’t seem to be resonating. Trump, meanwhile, takes a hard stance on immigration and opposes Harris on guns and taxes, but mostly he focuses on personal attacks, banking on criticisms of her intelligence and race to sway voters.

Race and gender are wildcards in this election. Harris would be the first woman and only the second Black person to become president. I wouldn’t discount the possibility that some voters, who are hesitant to disclose their true feelings to pollsters on these issues, might quietly cast their ballots for Trump.

In the end, I side with the Democrats who are feeling uneasy. If I were them, I’d double down on grassroots efforts to ensure that Harris’s supporters actually turn out to vote. In the meantime, like them, I’ll be hoping that October passes without surprises and that the margin of error works in her favor.