Calling Putin’s Bluff

Let Ukraine carry the fight to him

After Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, we rushed weapons, ammunition, and other supplies to the vastly outnumbered and outgunned defenders. These shipments made a huge difference as the Ukrainians tore Russia’s armored columns to shreds and repulsed its infantry. But from the beginning we placed a limit on our weapons: They could not be used to strike the enemy as it organized and armed itself inside Russia.

The Biden administration handcuffed Ukraine out of concern that Moscow’s dictator Vladimir Putin would view cross-border attacks as justification to use tactical nukes. This escalation would force the U.S. and NATO into a conflict that could become World War III. But while our side hesitated, it was clear to me that it was as the Russians who had everything to lose if they had to face US and NATO forces.  

Thankfully the administration has slowly loosened restrictions placed on Ukraine’s use of our weapons. Big news came over the weekend when the press reported that the Ukrainian Army is now permitted to target and strike troops, airfields, staging areas, and other facilities as much as 50 miles into Russian territory. My hope is that the White House has finally recognized that Putin has been bluffing all along. Here is the evidence:

         * Ukraine requested anti-tank Javelins and Stingers before the full-scale war was launched. They were denied large amounts, for fear of escalation. They got a few, used them effectively, and then got more. No nuclear war occurred.

         * After the battle of Kyiv was won, Ukraine requested MIG 29 jet fighters, which Poland agreed to give in exchange for Western aircraft. The Biden administration blocked this deal until it relented. No nuclear war occurred.

         * As the fight in eastern provinces picked up, Ukraine requested artillery and 155 mm shells to replenish its dwindling Soviet-era stocks. The administration said no, until they didn’t. No nuclear war occurred

         * Ukraine requested powerful F-16 fighter jets to help protect its skies. The administration said no until they didn’t, and Ukrainian pilots began training to fly them. No nuclear war occurred.

* Ukraine requested Patriot missiles to defend against the relentless air attacks by the Russians. The administration said no until they didn’t. No nuclear war occurred. Untold lives have been saved.

      * Ukraine requested HIMARS, the incredible medium-range missile/artillery system, to attack Russian supply lines. The administration said no, until they didn’t. No nuclear war occurred.

         * Ukraine requested Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles for trench warfare. The administration said no until they didn’t. No nuclear war occurred.

         * Ukraine requested ATACMS missiles, with a range of up to 190 miles, to attack Russian targets. The administration said no, until they didn’t. No nuclear war occurred.

In each case Putin’s bluff was called, he backed down, and Ukraine was able to better defend its territory.  Imagine if we had immediately provided Ukraine with all of the above and they deployed them without restrictions.  After the counteroffensive of 2022, Russia was on its last leg, fielding no more than 200,000 troops and struggling to recruit more. Ukraine could have finished the fight or had a much more successful counter-offensive in 2023. I believe the war could have ended then.

These days Ukrainian soldiers repeatedly tell stories of Russian columns attacking, being repelled, and retreating to safe Russian territory to have a hot meal, plan, and attack again. In logical warfare (how WE would fight) it’s at the precise moment of retreat and regrouping when you should double down and strike harder, creating chaos and panic and crushing the other side’s fighting strength and morale. Ukraine cannot win if the Russians can attack civilian targets with impunity and call “time out” as they retreat to their own territory.

Biden made a good move when he permitted Ukraine to use our weapons against Russian troops who have used the border as protection. More debates over such limits will likely take place as Ukraine’s F-16s take to the skies (they are ready now) and Kyiv presses for permission to go beyond the 50-mile limit. I say consider the record, and Putin’s bluff, and take off the handcuffs.