Election Wildcards

Trump has made inroads with these two groups

Photo by aceofnet on Unsplash

There are two wild cards in the upcoming election. One is the division between men and women under age 30. The men are pro-Donald Trump by a wide margin while the females heavily favor Kamala Harris.  The other is the black male vote, where Trump is making surprising inroads

Let’s consider the young men vs young women issue first. The divide has been widely reported in the last two years by pollsters and academics who study voter demographics. According to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 58 percent of these younger men go for Trump.  Sixty-seven percent of women prefer Harris

The voting split seems to reflect the overall separation of young men and women. The men report greater levels of loneliness and frustration in relationships. Indeed, only 37 percent of young men report they have a romantic relationship but 63 percent of young women do (younger women dating older men, is what makes the difference.) At the same time, 62 percent of the people on dating apps are male. These numbers support the feeling, shared by many young men, that the deck is stacked against them.

What’s going on? I think that overall, the progress made by women in education and the workplace is making them more independent and more choosy. At the same time, changes in the economy mean greater demand for people with keen communication skills (I believe women have an advantage here) while male-dominated well-paying manufacturing jobs are disappearing. Gone are the days when young men could count on factory work to give them steady employment at good wages.

Think about the environment occupied by young men — employers don’t want them and neither do women — and it’s easy to imagine why they may be drawn to Trump. It’s Trump whose  campaign offers a sour critique of today’s society and promises a return to the old days. Trump’s anti immigrant message would also resonate with men who feel that newcomers are taking their jobs. 

Immigration may also be a big issue for young and middle-aged black men, a quarter of whom say they are going to vote for Trump. This support for the Republican reflects a substantial gain over 2020 and 2016. These voters look at years of unfulfilled Democrat promises and agree when Trump says, “What have you got to lose?

According to the best sources, Trump’s anti free trade economic  message appeals to black men, as does his warning that elites want to curtail their civil rights. The fact that Trump’s arguments are full of holes doesn’t me matter because it’s the emotion that counts. 

With the election about two weeks away the result is going to be determined by turnout. Here Harris appears to have an advantage as her campaign will have the better “ground game.” This means her folks will be working block-by-block, reminding people to vote and even driving some to the polls. 

Trump, meanwhile, will rely on the considerable power of anger and resentment to motivate young male voters, both black and white, to show their support. They are his wild cards, and they could give him a winning hand.