Harris Gains Momentum

But it's not time to predict a winner

Polls are most useful when viewed in aggregate or when they reveal trends. In the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the results are trending strongly in her favor. But that’s not the only evidence suggesting she's gaining the upper hand. We'll dive into more detail shortly, but first, let’s examine the data.

People Like Her More

As vice president, Harris was far less visible than her predecessor, Mike Pence, who often played the role of a political sidekick. At White House meetings and public events, Pence appeared as the sycophant-in-chief, showering Trump with praise as though he were some sort of god-emperor. In one infamous cabinet meeting, Pence led a cringe-inducing session of flattery, starting with, “I’m deeply humbled, as your vice president, to be able to be here.” And it only got worse from there. Still, 45% of Americans approved of the way Pence handled his job.

For much of Harris’ tenure as vice president, her approval ratings trailed behind Pence’s. A year ago, she recorded the lowest approval rating for a vice president at 32% positive versus 49% negative—a net negative of 17 points. Fast forward to today, as a presidential candidate, Harris’ approval has climbed to 44%. More importantly, in a head-to-head match-up against Trump, Gallup finds her leading 49% to 44%. She’s now running neck-and-neck in battleground states, and momentum is on her side.

A Great Debate and Thwarting Trump

You might be thinking, “Okay, Adam, I acknowledge the numbers. But you’re a polling skeptic.” And you’d be right. However, several key factors seem to have shifted the dynamics. First, voters have gotten to know Harris better than when she was in the shadow of her boss. Second, she delivered a decisive performance in the recent debate. Third, she has effectively neutralized Trump’s insult-comic campaign style.

In 2016, Trump successfully defined his opponents with demeaning nicknames. Primary rivals like Marco Rubio (“Little Marco”), Ted Cruz (“Lyin’ Ted”), and Jeb Bush (“Sleepy Jeb”) fell like dominos. He even beat Hillary Clinton by branding her as “Crooked.” In 2020, Trump nearly pulled off a repeat, using “Sleepy Joe” to attack Biden, especially after Biden's shaky debate performance in June.

But with Harris, Trump hasn’t found a label that sticks. He tried “Crazy,” “Lyin’,” and “Laffin’,” all to no effect. He’s settled on “Comrade Kamala,” referencing her father’s academic work on Marxism. While this might resonate with some voters, especially those in Florida with experience in communist regimes, it’s largely fallen flat elsewhere.

Money, Money, Money

Harris’ momentum is further bolstered by a significant fundraising advantage. In August, she raised four times more money than Trump—$189 million compared to Trump’s $44 million. This has left her with a cash-on-hand advantage of $404 million to Trump’s $295 million. The Democratic Party is also outpacing the GOP in financial support, widening the gap.

The Democrats will likely funnel their resources into grassroots efforts, paying campaigners to go door-to-door and, on Election Day, ensuring voters turn out. While ad spending will be significant, it’s the ground game—the "doorknockers"—that may prove decisive. Here, too, Trump appears to be trailing.

Ground Troops, Scandals, and Vance

In swing states, GOP officials have expressed concerns that Trump either lacks the ground troops or is failing to deploy them effectively. In Oakland County, Michigan—a critical area full of Trump-leaning voters—the Republican field director reports a lack of visible campaign activity. Similar concerns are being voiced in Nevada and North Carolina.

In North Carolina, the Trump campaign has been further shaken by scandals surrounding gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson. Robinson’s troubles, which include offensive remarks and references to himself as a “black Nazi,” are so severe that key aides are abandoning ship, dragging Trump down with him. Trump’s vice-presidential pick is also proving to be a liability, alienating voters with bigoted remarks and clinging to bizarre claims, such as Haitian immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Illinois.

When you consider Vance’s troubles, Trump’s lack of ground troops, the cash disparity, and the polls, it becomes clear that Harris is building real momentum. This may be why former RNC chair Michael Steele recently predicted that Harris will win Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia.

I’m still too cautious—remember Hillary Clinton’s lead in 2016?—to fully agree with Steele, but I can see why he’s optimistic. At this point, Harris is looking strong. Very strong. And with 43 days left in the campaign, time is on her side.