What do Iowa and New Hampshire Mean?

New Hampshire may be a bellwether....Iowa? Meh

After months of candidate sparring and barn-storming, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are about to decide who they want to be the Republican candidate for president. Their choices are widely assumed to boost the winner as he or she turns toward the next contests in half a dozen states followed by so-called Super Tuesday – March 5 – when six primaries will truly establish a front runner.

Every four years many voters,  political experts, and journalists ask the obvious questions. Why in the world should such small states -- Iowa’s population is 3.2 million: New Hampshire’s is just 1.4 million --  always vote first? And what impact do these states really have? I wonder about this too.

First, let’s consider the facts about these states. Iowa is an especially rural state that is  89.9 percent white, 6.9 percent Hispanic, and 4.4 percent white. This compares with a national breakdown of 59.3 percent white, 18.9 percent Hispanic, and 12.6 percent black. Tiny New Hampshire with a  population that’s 92.6 percent white is even less diverse than Iowa. It also enjoys the odd status of being the seventh richest, per capita, of all 50 states. Household income there is almost $90,000 compared with a national figure of $74,580.

What impact do these early-decision states have? Well, since 1980, in contested non-incumbent races, Iowa has picked the eventual GOP nominees just twice. New Hampshire has done it five times. Iowa’s record is most likely the product of its peculiar voting system. Instead of going to the polls, Iowa Republicans attend evening precinct caucuses where they debate and vote. Under this system, a candidate who believes that Iowa confers momentum, will pour money and time into persuading his folks to attend caucuses. This is how Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ted Cruz – none of whom gained the party’s eventual nomination --- won Iowa.  

Now, before we decide the merits of Iowa’s and New Hampshire’s primary importance, let’s look at the one extraordinary circumstance affecting both races, namely, the presence of Donald Trump.

If you follow politics at all you know that the former president, who was defeated in his 2020 bid for reelection and then inspired an insurrection aimed at overturning the result, will be on the ballot in every primary state. In New Hampshire, where his lead had been in the double digits, recent polling shows that Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, has cut his advantage to seven points. In Iowa, current polls show Trump is supported by half the GOPers. In Iowa, Haley is scrapping with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for the second-place spot. In a crowded field, neither one has reached the 20 percent mark.   

Political obsessives like me pay close attention to these early horseraces, not because they always pick the eventual nominee, but because these twin spectacles are fun to watch. You can get a sense of a candidate’s retail appeal because in both states, voters have a very good chance to meet the candidates face to face.  As one New Hampshire independent (independents can vote in either party’s primary) recently told The Washinton Post:

“The nice thing about New Hampshire is that it really is grass roots. You get to meet the candidates if you want to. They’re everywhere.” Deb Konstant of Londonderry also told the Post, she supports Haley because Trump is “mean and nasty” and Haley is “fresh.”  Another Granite State voter, independent Lori Davis, told the Post, “Nikki wants to appear to be a very nice lady, and that works well… someone needs to stop Trump.”

 Across the nation, it will be independents who will decide the November general election. This makes the New Hampshire primary more relevant. And as Haley recently picked up an endorsement from the state’s popular governor and candidate Chris Christie, another moderate, dropped out, her stock likely rose.

In New Hampshire, where the voting is not dominated by hyper-partisans,  we may see a bellwether result. If Haley wins or comes within a few points of Trump, she would become the likely choice for most of the country’s anyone-but-Trump voters.  In a race reduced to a two-person contest, her support could grow to the point where she’s a credible threat to a man who poses a real threat to democracy.

I don’t agree with everything Haley has said and done. But she is the sanest candidate of all and if she gets the nomination she would stand a very good chance in a general election. But don’t expect the weak and victim laden MAGA movement to think or vote rationally. Does this mean I support Haley’s drive for the nomination?  I support the drive, but this is not an endorsement. Anything to stop Trump. I suspect New Hampshire to give her a shot…a long shot.